Asset Allocation
Statistical Recession Indicators Look Ominous
ClearBridge Investments' 10 signals of an economic downturn are now blinking red.
Tag: Yield Curve
Research
Shorting Bonds? The Case for a Seldom-Used Tactic
Allocators and other investors shy away from the practice, but a research paper argues that rising rates pose an ideal opportunity for negative bets.
Shop Talk
The Plus Side of Rising Interest Rates: Lower Pension Liabilities
Higher rates are no friend to bond portfolios, but they make life easier for DB plans.
Risk
Economic Warning: Animal Spirits Aren’t in a Happy Place, Says Wells Fargo
Well-known index of investor sentiment has grown more and more negative of late.
Risk
What Big Inflows into an ETF Tell Us About Bonds
Yes, long yields are heading up, and an inverted curve is less likely, say strategists.
Asset Allocation
The 10-Year Will Hit 2.5% This Year, and Maybe 3%, Per Gundlach
The Bond King sees rising rates (belatedly) helping to fuel the benchmark Treasury yield’s advance.
Asset Allocation
Why the Fed May Raise Rates Sooner Than You Think
Current projections say there will be two hikes in the latter part of 2022.
About Those Fed Rate Hikes: They Might Take Longer Than You Think
The market expects them to start next year. Maybe not, says LPL’s Gillum.
Market Moves
Rescue for Falling Bank Stocks: An End to Payout Curbs
The Fed is set to lift buyback and dividend restrictions, says Piper Sandler, as the flattening curve harms lenders’ shares.
Don’t Blame Inflation Jitters for Rising Treasury Yields, Bespoke Says
If anything, it’s the prospect of quicker economic growth, by the research group’s reasoning.
Market Drilldown
How Jeffrey Gundlach Gets Ready for Higher Rates
Check out the Bond King’s model portfolio designed to hedge against inflation and—oh, yeah—deflation, too.
Risk
A Likely Electoral ‘Blue Sweep’ Will Steepen Yield Curve, Credit Suisse Says
With Democrats ruling the White House and Congress, bigger federal spending should spur yield-raising inflation, report contends.
Research
The Yield Curve Un-Inverts: Time to Celebrate?
Opinions differ on whether this change to a widely followed recession signal means the heat is off.
Market Moves
Blame the Computers for Last Week’s Market Wipeout
So says JP Morgan’s trading honcho, Marko Kolanovic, who thinks more than half the moves were due to algos.
Market Moves
Hoo Boy, Inverted Yield Curve Adds to Stock Market Gloom
For the second time this year, Treasury-based signal flashes: recession ahead. But is this true?