In a rather gloomy speech at Norway’s annual political and civic conference, Norges Bank CEO Nicolai Tangen cautioned that the $2.43 trillion Government Pension Fund Global—the sovereign wealth fund of Norway—could vanish as a result of possible, albeit unlikely, catastrophic market and natural disasters.
In a talk at the Arendalsuka conference in Arendal, Norway, titled “The Oil Fund Could Disappear, and It’s More Likely Than We Like to Believe,” Tangen discussed the possibility that the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund could run out of money.
“Yes, of course it can,” Tangen said, citing extreme events such as nuclear war or biological terrorism. However, he cautioned that other scenarios—those both more likely and less drastic—could wipe out the fund.
“There is no country in history that has managed to hold on to a large financial fortune over time,” he said. “Fortunes are always lost in the end.”
Tangen noted that the Government Pension Fund Global has weathered financial turmoil in the past, but questioned what would happen if a financial downturn were prolonged.
“How do we deal with that?” he said. “In the depression scenario, it could take a decade for the market to recover. A lost decade would be the ultimate test of the fund model.”
Tangen warned that this would not only lead to a sharp decline in transfers from the fund, but tax revenues could also decline simultaneously with rising unemployment benefits and social security costs.
“How long can we keep a fund for future generations if markets fall and we spend more than we should—for five years, 10 years or even longer?” he said. “The most important thing with a long-term investment fund is not to make bad decisions when markets are falling and turbulent. But that is precisely when it tends to happen, often in a bit of a panic.”
Numbers Still Pointing Upward
The downbeat tone was belied by the GPFG’s 9.4% return for the first half of 2026. The performance was buoyed by a 13% return from its equities portfolio, which made a sharp turnaround from a loss of 2.6% during the first quarter.
Norges Bank also got in on Elon Musk’s SpaceX initial public offering, according to a Form 13F filing from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and held approximately 7.3 million shares worth roughly $1.24 billion as of June 30. This would indicate the stock’s price was about $171 at the end of the quarter. As of the close of trading on August 17, the stock’s price was $146.21, which would mean the value of its holding has since dropped by $170 million, assuming it still holds the same number of shares as reported in the filing.
Telecommunications and tech stocks were the main drivers behind the fund’s equities gains, returning 42.9% and 25.3%, respectively. While telecommunications holdings account for just 3.8% of the equities portfolio, tech stocks have the highest weighting at 32.2%.
At the other end, consumer discretionary stocks, the only equities sector not to register gains, lost 0.4% during the first half. Those stocks account for 11.3% of the equities portfolio.
The sovereign wealth fund’s real estate investments, including listed and unlisted investments, earned 5.9% during the period. Investments in listed real estate on their own returned 9.8%, while unlisted investments returned 3%.
The GPFG’s unlisted renewable energy infrastructure investments lost 0.2% in the first half of 2026, as ongoing income from power sales contributed positively, while currency effects contributed negatively to the return in the first half.
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Tags: Government Pension Fund Global, Nicolai Tangen, Norges Bank, SpaceX