Another Trump Tariff Hike Would Spark a Recession, Morgan Stanley Says
If the US lifts the levy to 25% on all Chinese imports, firm sees worldwide economic downturns.
Market Moves
New Tariffs May at Last Be Affecting the US Economy
Trump’s extension of levies to Chinese consumer goods show an impact in manufacturing and may tick up inflation.
Frazzled Investors Still Think the Fed Will Lower by Another Quarter-Point
CME futures overwhelmingly indicate a further dip will come in September.
Has the Federal Reserve Lost Its Power?
As it lowers a key rate by a quarter point, doubts crop up that the Fed lacks the oomph of old.
Good News: A Fed Rate Cut May End the Inverted Yield Curve
Then, the 3-month Treasury could dip below the 10-year, and dispel this dreaded recession portent.
Falling Bond Yields Push Model US Pension Funded Status Lower
A 7% rise in liabilities offset a 4% gain in assets during Q2.
Why Is the Fed Cutting Rates in a Good Economy?
Alan Greenspan and others say it’s for insurance, just in case things go wrong.
Beware of Corporate Debt, Even Non-Junk, Says David Einhorn
Prophetic on Lehman in ’08, hedge fund operator claims rating agencies go too easy on debt-laden companies.
Uh, Maybe Cutting Interest Rates Is Not a Good Idea
So says UBS’s chief, as the Fed, the ECB, and other central banks eye easing.
Multinationals Are Bailing from China, Larry Fink Says
As the trade war winds on with no end in sight, companies are not waiting around to see what happens, BlackRock chief finds.
A Break for the Weakened Housing Market
Mortgage rates are on the way down, which should boost affordability and home building starts.
Ray Dalio Calls for Investing in Gold Amid Troubling Times
The hedge fund kingpin says the allure of stocks will wane.
OK, the China Trade Talks Are Tough, But What Would a Pact Look Like?
More US goods bought, less tech transfer, and an enforcement mechanism. Maybe.
2Q Earnings Growth Might Not Go Negative After All
But even if they stay in the black, they will be puny compared to 2018’s blowout.
A Contrary Signal to the Baleful Inverted Yield Curve
The spread between BBB corporates and 10-year Treasuries is shrinking.