The US equities market will have a down year in 2016 as the Federal Reserve remains conservative in raising interest rates, according to Blackstone’s Senior Adviser Byron Wien’s annual prediction.
The former Morgan Stanley chief investment strategist foresaw US stocks likely suffering from weak earnings, margin pressure, and a tightening price/earnings ratio. Investors will also continue to keep large cash balances, which could contribute to equities’ poor performance.
The Blackstone adviser predicted Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election for the Democrats, beating Republican candidate Ted Cruz.
“The extreme positions of the Republican presidential candidate on key issues are cited as factors contributing to this outcome,” he forecasted.
“The weak American economy and the soft equity market cause overseas investors to reduce their holdings of American stocks.”The Fed will also likely raise the interest rates by 25 basis points only once in 2016, Wien wrote, due to the weak economy, corporate performance, and emerging markets. It may even consider reversing the rate hike later in the year, he added.
These market environments will likely keep the 10-year US treasury yield below 2.5%, Wien predicted, with investors continuing to view bonds as a “safe haven.”
“The weak American economy and the soft equity market cause overseas investors to reduce their holdings of American stocks,” Wien forecasted. “An uncertain policy agenda as a result of a heated presidential campaign further confuses the outlook.”
Wien also said China would “barely avoid a hard landing,” with growth falling below 5% and its debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 250%. These fears manifested on Monday when China’s main index plunged 7% to its lowest level in nearly three months, forcing an emerging trading halt.
Other predictions included a darkening long-term outlook for the euro as the refugee crisis continues to divide the European Union.
Oil prices, according to Blackstone’s resident seer, will linger around $30 per barrel thanks to slow global growth and increased production from Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“Diminished exploration and development may result in higher prices at some point, but supply/demand strains do not appear in 2016,” the senior adviser said.
Investors could get tough on financial engineering this year, Wien suggested. Share buybacks, mergers, acquisitions, and inversions may have provided short-term boosts to earnings-per-share, but not investment in research for long-term growth.
Wien’s crystal ball was not all gloom, however. Commodity prices overall earned a stable outlook, as agricultural and industrial manufacturers slow down production.
“Emerging market economies come out of their recessions and their equity markets astonish everyone by becoming positive performers,” Wein said, concluding his 31st annual fortune for the year ahead.
Related: Eight Unhedged Predictions (and Eleven Players to Watch) for 2016 & ‘Another Lackluster Year’: Market Predictions for 2016