When the U.S. government shut down more than 40 days ago, on October 1, federal economic data also went out of commission.
Regarded as the gold standard, October’s monthly jobs reports and inflation data were not published, although independent reports provided some insight. But after seven Democrats and an independent senator joined Republican senators to vote to end the shutdown, and with votes in the House of Representatives pending on Wednesday, the return of the data is imminent.
According to Martha Gimbel, executive director and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale University, who served as White House economic adviser under former President Joe Biden, when the shutdown ends, the release of data will vary based on the report type.
The jobs report for September—which should have been released in early October—should be available quickly after the government reopens, she says, while only half of October’s jobs data will be released. November’s jobs report may also face delays, and there likely will not be an inflation reading for October. Agencies usually provide an updated release schedule shortly after reopening, Gimbel says.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, however, suggested the shutdown may have a significant impact on the continuity of federal data.
The “October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released, and all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period,” Leavitt said.
Markets Remain Strong
Meanwhile, the shutdown appears to have had little effect on U.S. equities.
Although 2025’s shutdown marks the longest in U.S. history at more than 40 days, its impact on the market has been limited. Equities have shown resilience during the recent government shutdown, with the S&P 500 gaining 2% since October 1, according to charts provided by LPL Financial.
According to LPL Financial, historical data also suggest that resolving uncertainty, such as that caused by a government shutdown, typically benefits the stock market. In past shutdowns, the S&P 500 averaged gains of 1.2% and 2.9% in the one- and three-month periods following budget resolutions and government reopening, according to LPL Financial.
In a chart from October 1, the day the current shutdown began, LPL Financial asserted that during the previous shutdown, which lasted more than 30 days from December 2018 to January 2019, the S&P 500 increased by more than 10%.
Effect on Retirement Plans
The shutdown has delayed more than just economic data. Most regulatory agencies had to furlough workers, significantly hindering their operations.
Those slowdowns also had effects on plan sponsors awaiting guidance, such as the annual contribution limits for qualified defined contribution plans and individual retirement accounts for 2026, which are announced each year by the Internal Revenue Service.
The limits for 2025 and 2024 tax years were announced on November 1 of the preceding year, while the limits for the 2023 tax year were announced in October 2022, meaning the report is already likely later than its intended timeline.
Plan sponsors should be in the process of or have already finalized their annual participant notices for distribution, says Rosie Zaklad, a principal in Groom Law Group whose practice concerns the administration of retirement plans.
Zaklad says she is hopeful that the limits will be announced as early as this week. The IRS has made several releases during the shutdown, which makes a swift release a possibility, but it is currently uncertain when the limits will be released.
“This seems to be a ‘must-have’ even in a shutdown,” she says. “It is particularly urgent this year with the new mandatory Roth catch-up rule going into effect—we will need to know what the threshold is for determining what employees are impacted by this new rule based on 2025 compensation.”
Some plan sponsors have reported that they are unable to test their payroll system’s ability to segregate deemed Roth plan contributions and other features until the 2026 limits are published. That means the longer it takes for the limits to come, the less time employers will have for testing before the start of the new year.