OCIO to See $1.3T in Inflows by 2029 | Chief Investment Officer

The outsourced CIO industry is expected to see $1.3 trillion in inflows by 2029 from clients adopting an OCIO model for the first time, according to research from Cerulli Associates in “The Cerulli Report—U.S.Outsourced Chief Investment Officer Function 2025.”

The OCIO market has tripled in size over the last decade, according to Cerulli, from just more than $1 trillion in 2015 to more than $3.3 trillion by the end of 2024. By the end of the decade, Cerulli projects the industry to grow to $5.6 trillion—a 10.6% average annual growth rate over the coming five years.

Data and Projections

Cerulli measured OCIO growth using three factors: the investment performance of OCIO assets, which channels are experiencing inflows and the adoption of new OCIO from mandates. Cerulli noted that new adoption has been the strongest driver of industry growth.

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According to the report, defined contribution plans are expected to lead all other channels in total OCIO flows over the next five years, at $294 billion. This cohort is followed by corporate pension funds, with $248 billion in expected flows.

While growth in OCIO will depend on new clients adopting a fiduciary manager, Cerulli noted that 42% of searches completed by OCIO consultants were replacement searches—clients replacing one OCIO with another.

Corporate pension funds in the U.S. have increasingly turned to OCIO providers due to a surplus in pension assets. “The strong adoption rate among corporate defined benefit plans makes them an attractive client, despite lower projected asset growth,” according to the report.

Cerulli noted that larger OCIO providers are likely to focus on expanding into nonprofit and private wealth. Rich Nuzum, head of OCIO at Franklin Templeton, previously told CIO in a webinar interview that he expects defined contribution channels to be a driver of the industry’s growth.

In total, Cerulli expects 9.6% of all institutional assets—including corporate DB and DC plans; endowments and foundations; health and hospital systems; private wealth; insurance general accounts; and public DB plans—to be managed by OCIOs, up from 7.6% in 2024.

OCIO Demand Grows

Demand for OCIO services had historically been driven by corporate pension funds and smaller endowments and foundations that do not have the resources or staffing to efficiently manage their investments.

According to the 2025 CIO Outsourced Investment Manager Survey, union pension funds, endowments and foundations, and corporate pension funds reported being most likely to outsource or consider doing so, at 50%, 50% and 42% of these respondents, respectively.

Organizations with smaller portfolios are more likely to outsource their assets, according to CIO’s survey. Approximately 75% of organizations with between $500 million and $1 billion in assets either outsourced or planned to—compared with 31% for organizations with assets of at least $1 billion.

OCIO mandates are also growing in size—in October, Eli Lilly and Co. announced a $25 billion OCIO deal with Goldman Sachs Asset Management, shortly after the manager won a $40 billion mandate with Shell pensions. Last year, BlackRock closed its own $30 billion OCIO deal with Shell.

Industry growth could also drive consolidation—the number of firms offering outsourced fiduciary management services has grown to more than 130, according to Chestnut Advisory.

“The more growth we see in this space, the more folks are shifting parts of their business to support it. This makes it harder to create differentiation, particularly on the smaller end of the providers,” says Kate McCabe, a practice executive at Northern Trust Asset Servicing, who leads OCIO strategy for the business unit. “We’ve already seen consolidation in the space on the larger end.”

Chris Swansey, an associate director at Cerulli, wrote in the firm’s report that competitive dynamics are anticipated to change as a result of fee pressure that larger OCIO providers will likely impose “on smaller competitors as assets concentrate among the largest providers.” In a statement, he said, “if organic growth opportunities eventually decline, large OCIO firms are expected to seek inorganic growth through acquisitions.”

The Cerulli report noted that several recent acquisitions of OCIO providers, such as Hightower’s acquisition of NEPC, were conducted by wealth management firms looking to expand their footprint with institutional clients and to gain access to a quality manager research platform.