Risk
Investors’ Interest Rate Expectations Unrealistic, per NEPC
After many years of low borrowing costs, too many people have the delusion that these will return, NEPC warns.
Tag: Inflation
Risk
Will Red Sea Attacks on Cargo Ships Spark Inflation?
Only to a minor degree, says LPL Financial—goods prices already are low, so there’s a cushion.
Research
Overstated Shelter Costs Pump Up Reported Inflation, Says Sage
The government blamed the recent upsurge on rising housing costs, but that’s hooey, Barry Ritholtz charges.
Risk
Vexing Gap Persists on Rates: Investors vs. Fed Officials
Futures market expects deeper cuts ahead than the central bank bunch projects.
Research
Why Stocks Might Rise 10% in 2024, per CFRA’s Stovall
When the S&P 500 advances more than 20%, as it did in 2023, history says it will climb an average 10% in the next year, an investment sage finds.
Market Drivers in 2024: The Magnificent Seven? Something Else?
The mega-cap tech giants appear invincible. But things always change in the market.
Market Moves
Bob Doll’s 2023 Predictions Underperformed
The Wall Street heavyweight’s forecast did not live up to his three-decade record, as a widely predicted recession did not materialize.
Risk
What If Inflation Is Stuck at 3%, Derailing Fed Reductions?
The central bank wants the price index growth to ratchet down to 2%.
Pensions
Developed Nations’ Public Pension Plans Dropped By Average of 15% in 2022
An OECD report details how rough last year was for global funds, although the U.S. was protected slightly by a strong dollar.
Risk
The Bear POV: Amid All the Good Feelings, What Could Go Wrong?
The S&P 500 is nearing its peak, but here is the case made by several prominent Wall Street seers for why things can go awry.
Research
When Will Interest Rates Fall and by How Much?
UBS analysts think the Fed will need 6 months or so to realize it can ease, gradually slicing the central bank’s benchmark by a modest amount, up to 0.75 points.
Research
Inflation Is Down, but How Long Will That Last?
For several years, a Natixis report finds, as the price trends mostly point downward.
Research
Higher Interest Costs Will Continue for Some Time, Study Says
The so-called ‘natural interest rate’ is on the rise and will keep the cost of money aloft into the 2030s, per Bloomberg Economics.
Market Moves
Tech Stocks’ Multiples Too Rich to Keep Fueling S&P 500 Rise, Says Sage
Historically, when the sector’s P/Es are this high, its market performance flags over the next 12 months, per Jack Ablin.
Asset Allocation
Allocators Increasingly Shying Away From Risk, Survey Says
Almost half are slowing and one-third are lowering exposure to stocks and other risk assets, per CoreData.