Risk
Should We Even Care If the Yield Curve Inverts?
It’s a classic recession portent. But inversion’s predictive record is spotty.
Tag: Recession
Risk
So When Will This Recession Arrive, Anyway?
A lot of the Wall Street commentariat doesn’t believe we’ll get the much-feared downturn.
Risk
Should We Really Be Afraid of Stagflation?
Nope, argues Meketa, pointing to how energy’s role has shifted since the 1970s.
Risk
Bear Markets and Recessions Don’t Always Go Together, Says Stovall
Turns out that, since World War II, three bears didn’t lead to a recession, CFRA research shows.
Risk
Wall Street Expects a Slowdown, Not a Recession, But …
The one skunk at the picnic is pessimistic Deutsche Bank, which sees trouble ahead.
Risk
What It Would Take for Powell to Get His Soft Landing
Former New York Fed head Dudley thinks the central bank’s quest is doomed. Is he right?
Risk
How Escalating Inflation Can Produce a Recession
Natixis’ Lavorgna sketches out how higher prices shrinks consumers’ income—and imperil the economy.
Risk
Spreads Are Narrowing: Could We Get (Gulp) an Inverted Yield Curve?
With short rates climbing faster than long ones, this recession harbinger isn’t out of the question.
How CLOs, Despite Seeming Risky, Got to Be So Popular
In a triumph for structured finance, these packages of junk loans have up to now confounded any perils.
News
Moody’s Totes Up the US Budget Standoff’s Economic Threat
Beware of a recession, chaotic global markets, and a weakened US going forward, if the federal spending cap isn’t raised, economist Zandi admonishes.
If Governments Can Just Keep Their Cool, the Economy Will Be Fine, Says Savant
The 2020 recession was driven by policy, so any Delta-inspired double dip would be, too, Commonwealth’s McMillan warns.
Alternatives
Special Report: How City Office Centers, Written Off as Relics, Will Return, Post-Pandemic
The urban workspaces of the future are going to see more personalization, more automation, and more focus on health and wellness.
Everybody Says Higher Interest Rates Are Coming … But When and By How Much?
There are three reasons why, after long dwelling at subterranean levels, the cost of money will eventually poke its head up.
Coronavirus - COVID-19
IMF Upgrades Global Economic Forecast for 2021
Amid ‘exceptional uncertainty,’ World Economic Outlook projects 2021 growth of 5.5% after a 3.5% contraction in 2020.