Next question: What happened to the inverted arc’s role as a recession portent?
When the S&P 500 advances more than 20%, as it did in 2023, history says it will climb an average 10% in the next year, an investment sage finds.
An OECD report details how rough last year was for global funds, although the U.S. was protected slightly by a strong dollar.
Risk grows as a raft of junk-rated issuers, paying modest interest, must refinance their debt at much higher rates.
AUM growth decelerates and fundraising softens, Preqin reports.
Lower valuations and lots of unspent cash are the ingredients for an eventual upturn, says PitchBook.
Some allocators and managers are doing this, expecting a price pop ahead and collecting nice interest payouts along the way.
Big tech mega caps skew the profits picture, and stripping them out makes the outlook flat.
Volatile markets wipe out nearly all of the previous year’s S$22 billion gain.
Some strategists say pandemic spending and other factors have severed the historic sequence.
With tighter regulation on the way and the potential for firms to feign artificial intelligence influence, SocGen recommends a diverse approach.