10 Predictions for 2024, in Memory of Byron Wien

The celebrated market strategist Byron Wien, who died in 2023 at age 90, issued 10 predictions every year for almost four decades. To honor him, another well-regarded market seer has delivered a one-time-only 2024 sequel to the Wien auguries.

Wien’s prognostications, done while he was at Morgan Stanley and later Blackstone, “were an exercise in thinking against the grain about what might happen in an industry dominated by consensus,” wrote Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as he tried his hand at the fine art of divination.

Cembalest’s prophecies:

The still-dominant dollar maintains its current status. It will finish 2024 between 7% plus or minus where it began the year, on a trade-weighted basis. The buck also keeps its 50% share of global trade invoicing.
Federal regulators win a big antitrust case. It has been two decades since Washington won a large antitrust action—that was against Microsoft. This time, the victory will be against Google (owned by Alphabet), Amazon, Meta Platforms (parent of Facebook) or T-Mobile.
President Joe Biden withdraws from seeking reelection, citing health reasons. When? Sometime between the Super Tuesday primaries and the November election. The Democratic National Committee would choose the party nominee.
A pullback on driverless cars will occur. Controversy rages over reports that some of these autos block traffic and cause other problems. Tesla already has recalled driverless cars. More such actions are on the way.
Broadly syndicated loan losses rise above private credit losses for the first time. Lax BSL underwriting has produced more losses than private credit, which is more stringent about writing restrictions into its loans.
Argentine dollarization fails if implemented. The new Argentine president, Javier Milei, is trying to convince his legislative body to OK converting pesos to dollars in an effort to hold down rampant inflation. Critics say that only works for a more solid economy than Argentina’s.
Russian invasion of Ukraine drags on with no ceasefire in 2024. The war, ongoing for almost two years, is exhausting both sides in terms of manpower and finances.
U.S. regional banks’ stocks do well in 2024. Despite their woes last year, they see stable or rising prices. Price-to-book ratios are healthy for most of these lenders.
Major U.S. cities face electricity outages and natural gas outages. This is due to retirement of dispatchable power generation (nuclear, coal, gas) and underinvestment in pipelines, gas storage and winterization.
An inhaled COVID vaccine appears. These sharply reduce transmission. Current COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent the spread of the disease, but inhaled versions under development would.

Wien’s last effort, “The Ten Surprises of 2023,” co-authored by Joe Zidle, Blackstone’s chief investment strategist, marked the 38th year he had issued his conjectures. The duo got half of them right, including that the stock market would rebound from its 2022 dive and that the dollar would stay strong. Their calls that there would be a mild recession and a Ukraine ceasefire last year were off the mark.

Meanwhile, the predictions of Bob Doll, former chief equity strategist at Nuveen and BlackRock, and now CIO of Crossmark Global Investments, also are famous, but Wien started first. Doll has been making calls for 30 years. For 2023, Doll also got half of his calls right, on the low side for him. Among his wrong predictions was for a recession and for active stock pickers to out-do indexes.