Risk
Bear Markets and Recessions Don’t Always Go Together, Says Stovall
Turns out that, since World War II, three bears didn’t lead to a recession, CFRA research shows.
Tag: Federal Reserve
Risk
Could the 3% Yield Be the Trigger for the Bond Rally?
One school of thought: the 10-year Treasury hitting that level signals a growth slowdown.
Asset Allocation
Why Bond Prices, Shellacked Lately, Are Finally Turning Around
Stocks have fallen so much that fixed income seems to be resuming its status as a safe haven, analysts contend.
What Would It Take to Lower the Almighty Dollar?
Try a recession, or sanction-fueled suspicions, or high debt. But the buck’s dominance should continue, experts say.
The Plus Side of Rising Interest Rates: Lower Pension Liabilities
Higher rates are no friend to bond portfolios, but they make life easier for DB plans.
Risk
Wall Street Expects a Slowdown, Not a Recession, But …
The one skunk at the picnic is pessimistic Deutsche Bank, which sees trouble ahead.
Finally, the Move Out of Scandal-Tainted LIBOR Is at Hand
Why the prolonged wait for a transition to a new and less-corruptible credit benchmark?
Risk
Inflation: Why the Late 1940s Better Matches Today, Says Guggenheim
Not the 1970s, which is most often cited as the historical precedent, says firm CIO Scott Minerd. If so, that’s good news for us.
Risk
What It Would Take for Powell to Get His Soft Landing
Former New York Fed head Dudley thinks the central bank’s quest is doomed. Is he right?
Risk
Maybe an Inverted Yield Curve Isn’t an Ill Portent
The Fed has distorted the Treasury landscape, says a Bernstein savant. Without its bond buying, the 10-year would be yielding 3.7%.
Risk
What Big Inflows into an ETF Tell Us About Bonds
Yes, long yields are heading up, and an inverted curve is less likely, say strategists.
Risk
Will the Fed’s Just-Started Tightening Squelch the Stock Market?
Probably not, says LPL’s Detrick, as he trots out some historical precedents.
Has the Gabby Fed Gone Too Far in Its Transparency Push?
The central bank’s greater openness these days fuels risky behavior and thwarts flexibility, some say.
Risk
How Escalating Inflation Can Produce a Recession
Natixis’ Lavorgna sketches out how higher prices shrinks consumers’ income—and imperil the economy.